The Dolphins schedule is out and it’s May so it must be time for our Dolphins 2022 season predictions!
There’s so much to unravel before the team takes the field in anger come September let’s get down to our annual predictions for the coming season.
It’s been a packed off-season as the Dolphins sold the farm for Tyreek Hill, added quality to the offensive line and stacked out the running back room. Throw in the departure of nearly the entire wide receiver corps from 2021 and you can see, if you’re sensible, there’s a lot of moving pieces and the Dolphins will have a lot to figure out on the field before this season reaches it’s climax.
DOLPHINS 2022 SEASON PREDICTIONS
Before we jump in, a quick word about the stats for each game. Stats are for relevant games, so if the game is at home the Dolphins stats are how they did at home, and the opponents stats are what they did on the road. They are broken down into offense: what the team did; and defense: what their opponents did. All stats are averages per game. Record is the teams record in home/away games.
WEEK 1: vs PATRIOTS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 6-2 | 22.6 | 16.0 | 194.9 | 136.4 | 331.3 | 173.3 | 127.5 | 300.8 |
| Dolphins | 6-3 | 22.3 | 19.8 | 223.2 | 100.2 | 323.4 | 224.2 | 101.3 | 325.6 |
We open our Dolphins 2022 season predictions once again with the Patriots for the third time in a row. This opener comes at Hard Rock stadium in a repeat of last seasons final game. With the change to the coaching staff we can expect a more potent, and ideally more explosive, vertical offence. But whether all the parts will gel well enough for week 1 is a big question.
Defensively the Dolphins return a large portion of the unit that did so well last season, with a couple of potentially key additions. The key loss for the defence could be former HC Brian Flores and DB coach Gerald Alexander after rumours last season that the defence improved once they took over a lot of the duties mid-season after a poor start. So keep an eye on that.
Mac Jones looked solid, if unspectacular in his opening season and doesn’t really scare defences at this point in his career.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS WIN: 1-0
WEEK 2: at RAVENS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 5-4 | 25.6 | 22.8 | 236.4 | 176.8 | 413.2 | 290.1 | 82.3 | 372.4 |
| Dolphins | 3-5 | 17.5 | 24.4 | 238.6 | 83.3 | 321.9 | 279.1 | 119.4 | 398.5 |
The Ravens suffered a rash of injuries even before last season began, but still finished with a winning record at home and had a number of notable scalps including the Chiefs before going into free fall and losing their last 6 games to miss out on the playoffs.
Miami of course beat the Ravens at home in week 10 last season with a masterclass of a defensive performance that included 2 takeaways, a defensive touchdown, and holding the Ravens out of the game until the last five minutes of the game.
Again the question will be how good the Dolphins offence will come together early in the season, and the Ravens defence will likely be back to a more formidable unit that was seen late last season, and travelling to Baltimore is never an easy W.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS LOSS: 1-1
WEEK 3: vs BILLS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 5-3 | 30.8 | 17.5 | 294.9 | 119.6 | 414.5 | 223.8 | 102.0 | 325.8 |
| Dolphins | 6-3 | 22.3 | 19.8 | 223.2 | 100.2 | 323.4 | 224.2 | 101.3 | 325.6 |
After 2021 thinking of the Bills at home will give you sleepless nights, and cold sweats. The Bills Dolphins games last year were not fun to watch, at all. Out-gained in passing yards and rushing yards in BOTH games, and outscored 61-11 means the Dolphins have to make some serious strides to catch the Bills.
While progress has definitely been made by splashing some cash on the offence, has that gap been closed enough? Maybe. But probably not
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS LOSS: 1-2
WEEK 4: at BENGALS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 5-4 | 27.8 | 26.7 | 331.9 | 103.6 | 435.4 | 285.2 | 101.8 | 387.0 |
| Dolphins | 3-5 | 17.5 | 24.4 | 238.6 | 83.3 | 321.9 | 279.1 | 119.4 | 398.5 |
The Bengals are one of the more intriguing games in our Dolphins 2022 season predictions. Going all the way to the Super Bowl in year-two of the Joe Burrow era on relative yards per game the Bengals are the toughest offense the Dolphins will face in 2022. They also rank as the 4th-best points relative per game offense on the schedule scoring a whole 10.3 points more per game at home than the Dolphins mustered on the road.
All that said, the Bengals outscored their opponents in home games by just 1.1 points which is not a recipe for long-term success. And questions will remain about whether Joe Burrow can consistently perform until he does it again.
By week 4 I expect the Dolphins offence to have formed together nicely and pull off the upset win.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS WIN: 2-2
WEEK 5: at JETS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 3-6 | 19.8 | 29.0 | 253.6 | 117.6 | 371.1 | 279.7 | 128.3 | 408.0 |
| Dolphins | 3-5 | 17.5 | 24.4 | 238.6 | 83.3 | 321.9 | 279.1 | 119.4 | 398.5 |
I don’t want to underplay the Jets but they were putrid in 2021 and while they have definitely had a good off-season it’s hard to see them knocking off the up-trending Dolphins. That said you should never under-estimate a team even if they only average 19.8-points-per-game at home. The Dolphins only averaged 17.5 on the road last season so we always have to be on-guard.
And it should not be forgotten that after a really good performance in New York last season Tua had a bad outing at Hard Rock against the Jets with PFF awarding him the lowest passing grade of his career for that game.
But if the Dolphins get knocked off by the Jets early in the season we could be in serious trouble.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS WIN: 3-2
WEEK 6: vs VIKINGS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 3-6 | 25.4 | 28.0 | 260.3 | 111.3 | 371.7 | 271.9 | 144.0 | 415.9 |
| Dolphins | 6-3 | 22.3 | 19.8 | 223.2 | 100.2 | 323.4 | 224.2 | 101.3 | 325.6 |
The Vikings averaged 25.4 points on the road in 2021 and always a force to be reckoned with offensively. They even averaged more yards per game on the road than the Packers so definitely not a team to be taken lightly and Justin Jefferson will be a serious test for Xavien Howard as he ages gracefully.
But the defence of the Vikings just can not keep pace with their offence, allowing an abysmal 28.0 points-per-game on the road just 2.4 points per game less than the lowly Jets. For a team with playoff aspirations that is horrific.
Assuming all is flowing well with the Dolphins offence it shouldn’t be too much to ask for a win on fan club weekend.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS WIN: 4-2
WEEK 7: vs STEELERS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 3-5 | 19.5 | 27.5 | 246.0 | 84.1 | 330.1 | 241.3 | 164.9 | 406.1 |
| Dolphins | 6-3 | 22.3 | 19.8 | 223.2 | 100.2 | 323.4 | 224.2 | 101.3 | 325.6 |
The Steelers had a losing record, were outscored by 8-points-per-game and have lost outer-HOFer Ben Roethlisberger to retirement. While Big Ben may not have been his old self in 2021 that statue was likely more productive than the likely replacement Mitchell Trubisky. While Trubisky does have a winning record in his career he is not a QB who will win a game by himself.
If the Dolphins defence can stack up the running game and the offence can hit 20 points this really should be an easy-ish affair. The biggest storyline from this game is almost sure to be the return of former head coach Brian Flores.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS WIN: 5-2
WEEK 8: at LIONS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 3-5 | 22.1 | 27.9 | 246.9 | 87.9 | 334.8 | 280.0 | 127.5 | 407.5 |
| Dolphins | 3-5 | 17.5 | 24.4 | 238.6 | 83.3 | 321.9 | 279.1 | 119.4 | 398.5 |
The Lions are returning Jared Goff as their starter for 2022. Enough said.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS WIN: 6-2
WEEK 9: at BEARS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 3-5 | 19.1 | 19.6 | 205.1 | 129.1 | 334.3 | 184.5 | 126.4 | 310.9 |
| Dolphins | 3-5 | 17.5 | 24.4 | 238.6 | 83.3 | 321.9 | 279.1 | 119.4 | 398.5 |
The Bears are one of those teams it’s easy to scratch your head at. They draft a QB who almost miraculously falls into their area of the draft-board in 2021 and then spend the rest of 2021 and the off-season of 2022 refusing to add talent around him.
He looked seriously short of weapons in 2021, and that is only likely to look worse in 2022. The defence is still a force to be reckoned with, even without Khalil Mack, but it’s hard to not see this as a win.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS WIN: 7-2
WEEK 10: vs BROWNS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 2-6 | 22.4 | 26.8 | 225.9 | 146.4 | 372.3 | 249.9 | 120.8 | 370.6 |
| Dolphins | 6-3 | 22.3 | 19.8 | 223.2 | 100.2 | 323.4 | 224.2 | 101.3 | 325.6 |
Entering 2021 the Browns were one of those teams on the up. And then they went all Cleveland Browns on us. Baker Mayfield got banged up and the Browns sank into a quagmire of Brownsian-type drama. Nothing Cleveland does should surprise us anymore but then they trade for Deshaun Watson.
Watson is clearly a massive upgrade on the decidedly, to this point in his career, Baker Mayfield. But does Watson see the field this season or will he be suspended? If he gets the expected 8-game ban he will back for this matchup and this game becomes an absolute media dream with the Watson could’ve been in Miami hot-take crowd soiling themselves for 24-hours a day.
It has to be said that with Watson at the helm for the Browns I think this is a possible loss. Strong run attack and a QB who can burn you if you come-up too aggressively, and given the Dolphins struggles with 3rd and fourth receivers in 2021 this could be a massive issue.
If it’s Jacoby Brissett then this should be reasonably comfortable…but returning QB’s and all that. I’m going to assume Watson is back.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS LOSS: 7-3
WEEK 11: BYE WEEK
The Dolphins 2022 season predictions see us hit the bye week with a nice 7-3 record and likely second-place in the AFC East.
WEEK 12: vs TEXANS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 2-6 | 12.1 | 25.3 | 176.4 | 76.6 | 253.0 | 247.4 | 141.6 | 389.0 |
| Dolphins | 6-3 | 22.3 | 19.8 | 223.2 | 100.2 | 323.4 | 224.2 | 101.3 | 325.6 |
Davis Mills put up some OK numbers for the Texans in 2021, but a lot of those game in second-halves when the Texans were already in the hole. However, don’t underestimate Mills who was once rated the best high-school QB ahead of one Tua Tagovailoa. Injuries and a serious lack of playing time has seen him drop in expectations but there’s still that feint chance he becomes a good starting QB in the NFL.
Not in this game though.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS WIN: 8-3
WEEK 13: at 49ERS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 4-4 | 25.4 | 21.9 | 247.8 | 132.6 | 380.4 | 218.5 | 97.9 | 316.4 |
| Dolphins | 3-5 | 17.5 | 24.4 | 238.6 | 83.3 | 321.9 | 279.1 | 119.4 | 398.5 |
And so begins the hard 5-game stretch of the Dolphins 2022 season predictions. We’ve gone back-and-forth on all five of these games many times so let’s see where we landed in the end.
The 49ers are replacing Jimmy Garoppolo with Trey Lance despite the formers incredible W-L record (that’s because win-loss is not a QB stat!). Lance is a very mobile QB with a good arm that has thus far not looked great in the NFL. Against a defence that is harder to read, assuming things have stayed the same, and uses those exotic blitzes, and has Channing Tindall for a sideline-to-sideline spy on the QB this should be a happy return to SF for Mike Mc Daniel.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS WIN: 9-3
WEEK 14: at CHARGERS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 5-4 | 30.7 | 26.1 | 278.4 | 136.3 | 414.8 | 263.2 | 120.0 | 383.2 |
| Dolphins | 3-5 | 17.5 | 24.4 | 238.6 | 83.3 | 321.9 | 279.1 | 119.4 | 398.5 |
The second game of the West Coast swing gives us the Herbert v Tagovailoa Bowl II. I’m not a fan of the Justin Herbert verse Tua Tagovailoa narrative as they are very different QB’s with very different skill sets. Plus they can both be good so it’s a silly argument in my opinion.
The Chargers and Dolphins are at similar points in their re-development and while I think this is a close game I’m going to pick the Chargers for the simple reason it’s a road game. Averaging 30.7-points per game at home and having loaded up on defence in the off-season and it being the second West coast game in a row I think it’s just a little too much.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS LOSS: 9-4
WEEK 15: at BILLS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 6-3 | 26.3 | 16.6 | 232.3 | 139.1 | 371.4 | 139.7 | 116.7 | 256.3 |
| Dolphins | 3-5 | 17.5 | 24.4 | 238.6 | 83.3 | 321.9 | 279.1 | 119.4 | 398.5 |
There’s a lot going on as we head to Buffalo in week 15. But for all the reasons we had in week 3 and the fact Tua hasn’t done well thus-far in cold weather games I will repeat the earlier pick and go with the Bills.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS LOSS: 9-5
WEEK 16: vs PACKERS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 5-4 | 22.8 | 26.3 | 255.6 | 112.9 | 368.4 | 241.3 | 107.1 | 348.4 |
| Dolphins | 6-3 | 22.3 | 19.8 | 223.2 | 100.2 | 323.4 | 224.2 | 101.3 | 325.6 |
The Packers at home on Christmas Day! What could be better? A nice easy win would be better.
The Packers winning record on the road last season masked a very poor points-per-game performance and everything will once again hinge on Aaron Rodgers. As much as I really want this to be a win I have to go Packers at this point in the off-season.
We have no idea if the offence is going to be great, if the defence is going to be the same, or drop away, and how Mike McDaniel is as a HC. For me, that means going against a future Hall of fame QB gives the Packers the edge.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS LOSS: 9-6
WEEK 17: at PATRIOTS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 4-5 | 31.2 | 19.4 | 282.1 | 117.8 | 399.9 | 227.9 | 120.3 | 348.2 |
| Dolphins | 3-5 | 17.5 | 24.4 | 238.6 | 83.3 | 321.9 | 279.1 | 119.4 | 398.5 |
I don’t like the Patriots. I especially do not like them in what is likely to be a snowy covered field.
It pains me but…
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS LOSS: 9-7
WEEK 18: vs JETS
| offence | defence | ||||||||
| record | pf | pa | pass | rush | total | pass | rush | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 1-7 | 16.5 | 30.4 | 209.6 | 76.1 | 285.8 | 268.4 | 149.5 | 417.9 |
| Dolphins | 6-3 | 22.3 | 19.8 | 223.2 | 100.2 | 323.4 | 224.2 | 101.3 | 325.6 |
At home against the Jets for a playoff spot. Now that’s a nice way to end the season.
AQUA THIRTEEN PICK: DOLPHINS WIN: 10-7
And that’s how our Dolphins 2022 season predictions roll. Hit us up with how you think it will go in the comments and on social media.
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